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Mathematics is working for Real Madrid in its match next week against Paris Saint-Germain. According to a study by professors at the Universities of Ovidio and Castile-La Mancha, the Whites’ chances of qualifying went from 38.3% to 54.7% after the elimination of the away goal rule in head-to-head matches in the UEFA Champions League.
“It can be said that without the double value of away goals, Real Madrid’s chances have turned from a very difficult qualification to a difficult qualification,” says del Coral (one of the masters).
In an article published in the International Journal of Sports Finance, the three economists analyzed the results of the two qualifying matches in the Copa Libertadores club competitions between 1988 and 2014.
The sample contains 594 encounters in which the OTA rule was not used (1989-2004) and 585 that were used (1988, 2005-2014). So it’s an important sample, with over a thousand elimination rounds.
Among the conclusions, in addition to the advantage of the team playing the second match at home, with the elimination of the away goal rule, it becomes clear that the probability of going to extra time and penalty kicks increases. By the way, if the match ends with eleven metres, it would be better for Real Madrid to shoot first.
An article published by Professor Palacios-Huerta in the American Economic Journal reveals that whoever takes the first penalty kick wins the penalty shootout 65.9% of the time. But beware, in a time of such stress, there are more factors that can tip the balance to one side or the other. “We have a recent example of Nadal winning the Australian Open against Medvedev. It is evidence that mental strength is decisive in the moments of peak,” points out Varela Quintana.
But if things go smoothly with penalties for whoever shoots first, it wouldn’t be a bad deal for Real Madrid to get into extra time against PSG. “UEFA sees the away goal rule as providing a huge advantage to the visiting team if extra time is reached. However, the data refutes this argument. The percentage of playoffs won by the home team in the second game was above 50% in the periods. 1973-1986, 1987-1999 and 2000-2011, showing that the home team has an advantage despite the away goal rule significantly, which will favor the host teams more in the second match,” say Varela Quintana, Preto and del Coral.
Playing order and elimination rounds will also be affected, as the competition progresses, by eliminating the two-goal away rule. Removing this rule will increase the likelihood that teams playing the second home game will qualify.
This, in the round of 16, means giving a greater advantage to the teams that were ranked first in the group in the previous stage. This means that a higher award is given to teams that have previously performed better, which doesn’t seem to be a problem
But numbers are one thing, and Mbappe is another. Mathematics, as the professors admit, “cannot measure the intangible, and it abounds in football.” Indeed, in the first leg the state of form in which Benzema arrived, affected by his injury to the left semimembranosus in the hamstring, affected.
It cannot be controlled that Al-Khelaifi, who came down at the break to pressure the referee, or Casemiro and Mendy will be punished with a yellow card, which will lead to their absence from the return match at the Bernabeu next Wednesday due to the accumulation of warnings. Another scientist, Ron Deleg says, “99% of the stats reveal only 49% of the story…”.
Source: AS
